An analysis of the Register of Voters for the 2017 Elections reveals that the occurence of duplicate voter records was heavily concentrating in just two constituencies in Homa Bay. The two, Rangwe and Karachuonyo have more than six percent of the registered voters as illegal duplicates.
Moreover, the duplicates were concentrating in a few wards in the two constituencies, where they made up for a considerable percentage of the voters and, if used for rigging, may have made a great difference in the election results. The most extreme case, however, was one ID number being registered for 36 different names, of which 29 were registered at one polling station, the Huma Primary School in Kisumu West.
Analysis was made this Weekend
The analysis was done on Saturday, Oct. 19th, 2018 by the Election Observation Group, ELOG, on request of RoGGKenya.org, a service site for media about Reporting on Good Governance in Kenya. It scrutinized the Voter Register as of end of June 2017, around six weeks before the Kenyan General Elections.
Up to ten Percent Duplicates in a Ward
The example of the Wangchieng ward, which is on top of ELOG’s list (see below), shows more details. Out of the ward’s 17,537 voters, ten percent or 1,759 voters were duplicates. The same ward was heavily contested within the ODM party, and the County Assembly seat was taken by Peter Ojwang Kaula who officially garnered 6,269 votes. Kaula’s nomination was challenged in vain by his rival Jusper Omondi Oguta before the Political Parties Disputes Tribunal. (see link to document below)
The “dead Voters” may add to the Impact
An influence of double entries in the voter registry on the election outcome might have been heavily augmented if the estimated number of 1 million names of dead in the voter registry was considered. What if the “dead voters” were also concentrating in certain constituencies and wards?
Both, the countrywide almost 170,000 “double voters” and 1,000,000 “dead voters” (out of around 19 million registered voters), if used for rigging, would not have affected the outcome of the general elections, even if election rigging efforts in Nyanza might have happened by using these records.
Relevant mainly for the non-Presidential Positions
But their use for rigging would have an effect on the choice of all other electoral positions in the counties, constituencies and wards; and the analysis of the double voter entries leaves ample space to assuming that the “dead voters” are also piling up in certain areas of the country. This can however not be scrutinized because the Principal Registrar of Births and Deaths has consistently failed of handing out the data that could be used for purging the dead from the Registry of Voters and this registry itself is considered not to be up-to-date.
Was the electronic Kit used to avoid Irregularities?
Rigging with double voter entries or dead voters is only possible if the electronic kit for voter verification is not used. To see if this happened, a scrutiny of the polling stations diary would be necessary where, according to the Elections Regulations every deviation from rules shall be registered .
IEBC Officials on the Spot
The concentration of double voter entries raises serious questions about the actions of the Election Commission IEBC’s regional officers in Homabay and also Kisumu who were in charge in the most affected wards and registration centres. Some of which are listed in the tables below. Were they just negligent or was the double voter registration serving a conspirative purpose?
The top officials of the IEBC are also on the spot, because officially the Commission had been busy purging double votes for months in 2017 – and an earlier analysis of RoGGKenya.org (link) had already shown that the “negligence” was concentrating in very specific wards in Nyanza.
An inquiry of RoGGKenya.org to the IEBC is pending: We are asking how exactly the duplicate entries may have affected the voting results in a ward or constituency and how the IEBC dealt with them.
Questions by ELOG not answered
According to Mulle Musau of Election Observation Group, ELOG raised the issue with the IEBC before the election, and their response was that between the date they gave ELOG the database (28th June 2017) and the election date they did more cleaning. “This has not been ascertained.” Mulle added.
He said: “Double registrations would be attributable chiefly to poor voter education, registration in rural and urban settings without reference to earlier registration and EMB management of data.” But that still does not explain the heavy concentration. Mulle added: “It can also be manipulation of the exercise of registration especially where it appears to follow certain contours.”
Quote from the ELOg Analysis on behalf of RoGGKenya.org
“ELOG received the 2017 RoV from the IEBC on 28th June 2017. ELOG conducted an in-depth analysis of the voters register record of 19,611,423. In the analysis ELOG managed to flag out 169,646 duplicate records this represents a 0.87% of the total registered voters.”
The top Ten Wards with the highest Percentage of Multiple Voter Records:
|No||County Code||County Name||Constituency Name||County Assembly Ward||Registered Voters||Duplicate Records||% Duplicates/ Voters|
|6||043||Homa Bay||Rangwe||East Gem||11,592||761||6.56%|
|7||043||Homa Bay||Rangwe||West Gem||10,743||691||6.43%|
|8||043||Homa Bay||Karachuonyo||Kendu Bay Town||11,972||717||5.99%|
|10||043||Homa Bay||Karachuonyo||West Karachuonyo||10,537||523||4.96%|
- The general ELOG Analysis of Oct. 17, 2018 (external link to pdf file)
- Homa Bay MCA candidates 2017 (List on RoGGKenya)
- All candidates’ lists of the 2017 elections (for look-ups of “who was involved” and speculating on “who profits”) on RoGGKenya.org
- Elected Candidates (the Kenya Gazette of Aug 22, 2017): (pdf-file on IEBC website)
- Earlier News on RoGGKenya: “Wards in Nyanza Hotspots of Wrong User Data”
- Oguta challenges ODM nomination in Wangchieng ward (pdf of Tribunal Case on kenyalaw.org )-
- IEBC gazettement of Returning Officers in the Counties and Constituencies (pdf on IEBC page)
- How to check on Rigging Claims retrospectively (Guide for Journalists on RoGGKenya.org)
Suggestions for Follow-Ups
- Questions to IEBC officials: what happened with the double voters? Where they existing people who were denied the right to vote? What was the policy? Did anybody complain about being denied the right to vote?
- Question to IEBC: Were irregularities been recorded in the respective polling station diaries, and can they show them?
- How relevant were the numbers of registered voters in the above mentioned wards in Homa Bay for the outcome of the elections? (This would require knowledge about the votes for all candidates in the two most affected constituencies)
- Question to ELOG to provide a longer list of polling stations with higher percentage of double IDs.