Why President Ruto’s Half-Hearted Action Spells More Trouble for His Administration

Imagine a king, instructed by God to completely obliterate his enemy’s empire, but he opts to keep the best spoils for himself, convinced that his partial obedience will still be seen as a courageous act and sign of humility after being confronted. Although in a different context, this ancient biblical story of King Saul is unfolding right here in Kenya, offering a significant parallel for the country’s political leadership.

President William Ruto’s decision to fire his entire cabinet, except for the Prime Cabinet Secretary, casts doubt on his commitment to meeting the demands of the majority of Kenyans. Similar to Saul’s partial obedience that led to his downfall, Ruto’s actions risk diminishing his remaining little credibility and political support, which mirrors the grave consequences King Saul faced for failing to fully obey God’s voice through Samuel.

The president’s decision follows weeks of nationwide protests, driven mainly by young Kenyans dissatisfied with his government’s performance. In a fiercely contested campaign nearly two years ago, President Ruto promised Kenyans that his government would be for the poor and by the poor. He pledged to lower the cost of living within his first 100 days, transform the economy for equitable growth, and foster national unity.

However, since then, the economic situation for many Kenyans has worsened, sparking growing criticism, largely on social media. Ruto’s government has also faced accusations of extravagance, perceived incompetence, and numerous scandals involving his officials.

When young Kenyans, known as Gen Z and millennials, took to the streets to protest against a proposed tax bill that aimed to raise taxes in June, many including in his government dismissed it as typical noise from disgruntled, possibly sponsored inconsequential individuals, especially from civil society groups and oppositions.

President Ruto and members of parliament came under heavy criticism from young protesters who accused them of being disconnected from the hardships faced by Kenyans. They alleged that the government’s focus was primarily on promoting International Monetary Fund (IMF) tax proposals that would further burden the already struggling population. Critics argue that IMF loans come with stringent conditions, disproportionately impacting the poor in African countries. The nationwide protests forced Ruto to abandon the proposed tax bill and promise Kenyans more measures to avert the situation.

The protests also prompted President Ruto to announce significant cuts to government spending, responding to widespread anger over his cabinet’s lavish travel and renovation budgets while ordinary citizens faced a severe cost-of-living crisis. In addition to scrapping the annual finance bill 2024, Ruto sought to appease protesters by engaging with them directly on social media platform X, aiming to address their specific demands, which included a complete overhaul of his cabinet and the tackling of corruption, particularly among his close allies and within his ruling party.

Gen Z have maintained that the next cabinet should consist of a lean team composed of individuals with high integrity and strong and proven performance records. The youth have also highlighted healthcare reform as urgent and the unfulfilled promise of universal healthcare access, which is adding fuel to public rage.

In his 2022 election campaign, President Ruto pledged to reform the Competence-Based Curriculum (CBC) to address concerns from skeptical parents then, a promise that now seems forgotten or conveniently ignored immediately after he took power. Additionally, the young protesters have raised issues regarding funding for tertiary and university education, arguing that under his government education has become a privilege for the wealthy rather than a fundamental right for all.

Despite some viewing Ruto’s recent actions as bold and a step in the right direction, many Kenyans are still skeptical and have continued to demand his resignation through more country-wide protests. On July 7th, hundreds of youth gathered in Nairobi’s Uhuru Park, flying the national flag, chanting slogans, and dancing to honor over 40 people killed by police bullets in recent protests.

Several individuals are still in hospitals recovering from gunshot wounds, with reports of dozens of others still being abducted and subjected to torture. The ongoing search for missing protesters, coupled with the recent retrieval of bodies from a quarry in Kware, Mukuru Kwa Njega slum, remains a critical issue fueling demands for Ruto’s accountability and resignation.

President Ruto claims to have listened to Gen Z’s demands, but there’s a lingering skepticism in his responses – many Kenyans perceive him as adept at speaking ambiguously. While he acknowledges their demands, he appears to struggle to fully comprehend that the protests could be driven solely by anger over unmet promises and rampant corruption. He maintains a belief that an invisible hand might be funding, mobilizing, or influencing Gen Z’s rage. In his apparent naivety about the Gen Z movement, he recently gathered Odinga and others on the steps of KICC to announce a dialogue which was promptly met with questions from Gen Z about its purpose and Odinga’s role.

To many, it’s evident that President Ruto fails to recognize that the protests are organic; instead, he remains fixated on an imagined financier and orchestrators. Testimonies from those who have been abducted and released reveal that the interrogations often focus on identifying the movement’s supposed backers and leaders, which highlights Ruto’s profound cluelessness. Like Saul, he remains deaf to the true voice of Kenyans.

While dismissing his cabinet, President Ruto explained that his decision was after a “reflection, listening to Kenyans”, and after a comprehensive evaluation of his cabinet. He also said that he would consult widely to establish a more inclusive government.

President Ruto often says that the voice of the people is the voice of God. However, one would expect that, like King Saul in the Bible, in which he frequently references to align himself with the religious majority of Kenyans, the widespread calls from Gen Z and all Kenyans for a complete overhaul or resignation would have served him as a stark reminder, echoing the story of King Saul in 1 Samuel 15.

In that story, God, through prophet Samuel, instructed Saul to completely destroy the Amalekites and their possessions as a divine judgment – correct the mistake and re-establish his kingdom afresh. However, Saul disobeyed by sparing King Agag and the best of the livestock, claiming he intended to use them for sacrifices to God. Samuel confronted Saul, reminding him that obedience is better than sacrifice and that because he had rejected God’s voice, God had rejected his kingship and his entire Kingdom.

This story emphasizes that partial obedience is still disobedience in God’s eyes. It also highlights the principle that leaders are accountable to higher standards and divine authority. By sparing the unconstitutional office of Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi based on a pre-election coalition agreement, and hesitating to make radical changes in his administration, President Ruto may be perceived as lacking full commitment to comprehensive reforms by Kenyans, which is reminiscent of Saul sparing the best livestock and King Agag.

This selective action directly undermines his perceived effort to reform his government and the decisiveness of his leadership, with potential political consequences. Just as Saul’s half-hearted obedience led to his rejection by God and the loss of his kingship, President Ruto’s partial actions risk eroding trust and the little credibility left among his supporters and the general public.

Discontent is already brewing, particularly from Mount Kenya and other counties where Ruto secured significant votes in 2022. The political repercussions of dismissing cabinet secretaries are severe, especially since the former appointees were his political rewards for their 2022 campaign support. Ruto’s action is a double-edged sword; failing to replace those fired CSs with individuals from the same communities, along with unmet promises, could spell more trouble for his remaining political support. This will further erode his ability to govern effectively and potentially put the final nail in his re-election bid in 2027.

President Ruto’s actions might also stir internal party strife. Perceived favoritism could lead to internal conflicts within his ruling party, with disgruntled members already challenging his leadership and threatening to defect to opposition parties. Opposition parties on the other hand are cashing on the evolving situation, using these unfulfilled promises, partial action measures and Gen Z’s rage as ammunition to criticize Ruto’s administration.

Growing public dissatisfaction due to unmet expectations and perceived injustices against the protesters would only increase protests, strikes, or civil unrest, which would further destabilize the political environment.  Although it’s highly unlikely that Ruto will resign, the power brokers around him may keep suggesting piecemeal reforms to pacify public anger and buy time until 2027.

Although King Saul did not rule with an iron fist after disobeying God’s command, his reign spiraled into instability and paranoia. He became erratic and obsessed with preserving his power, driven by fear and jealousy, especially towards David, his anointed successor. Saul’s later years were marked by attempts to kill David, who posed a threat to his kingship. Ultimately, Saul met a tragic end in the battle against the Philistines, leading to his death and paving the way for David to ascend as king.

If President Ruto fails to fulfill Gen Z’s specific demands, he confronts a harsh dilemma: either step down with honor or risk following the path of autocrats like Muammar Gaddafi of Libya or Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of Congo), who met their downfall after periods of ruthless rule.