President Ruto Sending Youth Abroad, to Tame Hostility and Boost Kenya’s Cash Flow
Nairobi is negotiating agreements with countries with aging populations, such as Germany and Canada, to send workers there. Experts believe it's both a way to keep a hostile youth away and to bring money into Kenya.
Nairobi, Oct 07 – Kenyan bus drivers are heading to Germany. On September 12, Stella Mokaya, the Kenyan ambassador to Berlin, announced that 3,000 drivers would soon be sent to work in the Federal Republic. The country, with its aging population, is facing a structural labor shortage to fill certain roles. They will be employed by Aktiv Bus Flensburg, the company responsible for operating the transport network in Flensburg, a town of 100,000 inhabitants on the Danish border.
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The two countries are planning further agreements in the energy, trade, education and transport sectors. The announcement of the upcoming arrival of 3,000 bus drivers preceded Kenyan President William Ruto’s visit to Germany on September 13 and 14. During the visit, the head of state announced that 250,000 jobs had been secured for young graduates from his country, only to be contradicted by the German interior minister, who pointed out that an agreement had been signed but without a specific quota.
Nevertheless, this partnership reflects a deeper trend: Kenya is encouraging its young people, both skilled and unskilled, to leave the country in search of employment opportunities elsewhere. Ruto has stated that 5,000 Kenyans leave the country every week. “He is the first president to openly make the export of workers a public policy. The measure is at the top of his political agenda. It’s unprecedented,” said political scientist Njahira Gitahi.
Endemic unemployment
In addition to Germany, Nairobi has signed agreements with several Arabian Peninsula states and Canada. In May 2023, an agreement for healthcare jobs was signed with Canada, with President Ruto pledging to send doctors, nurses and physiotherapists to address Canada’s aging population: “Kenya’s workforce is our greatest resource. It is well-trained and hardworking. Even as we invest in sectors that will create employment in the country, opportunities for Kenyans abroad are another way to lift up our young people,” said Ruto at the time.
Why make so many of these agreements? “It’s a way of keeping young people away, especially those who demonstrated against the budget bill in June and July. William Ruto is kicking them out before they punish him at the ballot box in 2027,” said Gitahi. Political scientist Dauti Kahura agreed with this analysis: “After two years in power, William Ruto is extremely unpopular, especially among ‘Gen Z’ [born between the late 1990s and early 2010s]. Promising young people jobs abroad is a response to the recent protests.”
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Above all, he believes that expatriating young Kenyans is “a good way for the head of state to keep away the group most likely to prevent his re-election in 2027.” Kahura highlighted that “18-25 year-olds represent 65% of the electorate” and that “while Kenyans in the diaspora have the right to vote, in practice, the arrangements for doing so make it difficult.”
Another reason is endemic unemployment. Some 35% of young Kenyans are unemployed. Many leave universities without finding a job, and many of them, for want of anything better, take jobs for which they are overqualified. “The issue of mass unemployment is a long-standing one and predates Ruto’s presidency. However, the president needs to give the impression that he is trying to solve this problem. His answer is to say he’s negotiating job opportunities abroad,” according to Kahura.
Currency transfers
During the 2022 election campaign, Ruto constantly portrayed himself as the candidate of the “ordinary people” against the elites. “He developed a narrative totally focused on unemployed young people, especially the ‘hustlers’ [workers in the informal economy], but never mentioned that he intended to send people abroad. This argument only appeared when he came to power,” Gitahi explained.
From 2022 Kenya presidential election: William Ruto, the self-proclaimed candidate for ‘hustlers’
Another explanation can be found in currency transfers. According to the Central Bank of Kenya, in 2023, the diaspora sent 671 billion Kenyan shillings (around €3.8 billion at the time) to the country. Kenyans living in the United States contributed more than half of this, followed by those living in Canada, the UK, Germany and Saudi Arabia. “It’s certainly a way of bringing money into Kenya,” said Kahura, especially since the country is heavily indebted and struggling to pay off international lenders.
Gitahi is dubious about the long-term effects of this policy: “At school, Kenyans were taught that the brain drain was a danger for the country, that it deprived it of its doctors and engineers. I find it hard to see how we can build a nation if we deprive it of its lifeblood.”
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.
