ODM Supporters Fume as Oburu Oginga is Installed as Party Leader

Nairobi, October 28 – In the hushed and tense atmosphere of the Orange Democratic Movement’s Central Management Committee meeting in a Nairobi hotel yesterday, a political fait accompli was solemnly ratified. Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga Odinga, who ironically chaired the very committee that would decide his fate, was formally coronated as the ODM new party leader, succeeding his late younger brother Raila Odinga who died less than two weeks ago. Party diehards now concede that ODM has morphed from a national movement into a family inheritance – its leadership inherited not earned, and its survival now driven more by desperation than conviction.

The move, packaged in the somber language of mourning and party continuity, is anything but a temporary lifesaving support. It is the culmination of a calculated survival strategy that began the moment Raila Odinga’s heart stopped beating in a Mumbai hospital on October 15. Far from securing the party’s future, supporters say yesterday’s decision to install a reluctant, comfort-seeking heir confirmed ODM’s tragic metamorphosis from a vibrant national movement into a dynastic political franchise, now ruthlessly engineered for the benefit of nervous political orphans, terrified of life outside the government’s trappings of power and bereft of any political godfather.

ODM Secretary General, Edwin Sifuna, emerged from the near four-hour meeting to deliver a statement that was heavy on pleas and light on conviction. “I beseech the media to avoid the tendency for sensationalism and the incessant hunt for negative news within the party,” he implored, adding, “ODM’s biggest problem now will not be which faction is winning against which one.” This defensive, almost plaintive tone was the clearest indicator of a leadership that knows it has made a decision indefensible to its own base. Sifuna’s plea was not for fair reporting, but for a moratorium on scrutiny. He was asking the nation to look away as the party’s soul was surgically getting ready for removal.

To understand the gravity of this moment, one must perform an autopsy on ODM’s decline. The body did not die on October 15 – it was mortally wounded months earlier. The first and most decisive cut came when Raila chose to join forces with President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration, forming a broad-based government. For both ODM supporters and admirers, this was not a simple handshake; it was a political neutering. For starters, ODM’s identity was forged in the fires of the 2005 Orange Movement that defeated Mwai Kibaki’s banana-for-constitution push and later tempered by successive bruising elections. It was built to be the voice of the voiceless, an uncompromising opposition to state excess and corruption. The party machinery, from its grassroots organizers to its spokespeople on national television, was programmed for combat.

By jumping into bed with Kenya Kwanza, Raila pulled the plug on this life support system. The fiery press conferences ceased. The mass mobilization calls evaporated. The sharp, issue-based critiques that held the government’s feet to the fire were replaced by muffled murmurs from within the government.

Many long-time ODM supporters, especially the silent majority outside the Nyanza loyalists, now speak with quiet frustration. They say the party lost its national soul the moment it joined the very government it once vowed to oppose.

The ideological compass was shattered. Party loyalists who had braved tear gas and live bullets in the name of “People’s Power” watched in bewilderment as their generals crossed to dine with the very commanders they had been fighting. This confusion quickly curdled into disillusionment. The first cracks were not visible in the party’s top organ, but in the hearts of its millions of supporters who felt a profound sense of betrayal. The party began to lose its national appeal because it had voluntarily surrendered its national purpose.

Against this backdrop of pre-existing weakness, the choice of Oburu as the party leader is not just a misstep but a surreal catastrophic surrender. It confirms every cynical criticism leveled against ODM: that ODM was Raila Odinga, and Raila Odinga was ODM. Now, stripped of all pretence, many party supporters say it now sounds more like a family enterprise than the vibrant democratic movement it once claimed to be – a pale shadow of its former self.

The speed of the succession was nothing short of breathtaking. Within 24 hours of Raila’s passing, the National Executive Council (NEC) had installed Oburu as acting leader. The Central Management Committee’s yesterday meeting was merely a rubber stamp, a theatrical performance of democracy to legitimize a pre-ordained outcome.

ODM supporters flooded social media moments after Oburu’s confirmation as party leader, voicing one burning question that echoed across platforms: why Oburu? They wondered what leadership qualities, political vision, or national appeal set him apart to steer the party at such a defining moment.

To the vast majority of Kenyans outside Siaya County, Oburu is a spectral figure. He is known not for his own political accomplishments, but for his famous surname and his role as Raila’s older brother. His political persona is that of a man who has always been comfortable in the background, never seizing the limelight or articulating a compelling, independent political vision. The perception, whether fair or not, is that of a weak politician, more inclined to preserve his current comfort and the access it affords than to wage the bruising battles necessary to rebuild a fractured opposition. He is seen as a man who would rather maintain a cordial détente with President Ruto than make a decision that might offend the state and jeopardize his newfound prominence.

This perception makes him an extremely divisive, not unifying, figure. The grassroots, the “foot soldiers” who fueled the “People’s President” campaigns and believed in the baba’s cause, will not be inspired to take to the streets for a leader they view as an extension of the status quo. In Oburu, they see a man who has benefited from the political tranquility of the broad-based government and is unlikely to rock the boat.

The tragedy of this decision is the glaring omission of other, more credible leaders who embody the party’s original fire and possess genuine national appeal. By choosing Oburu, the party top brass, critics say, deliberately sidelined these figures, revealing that the primary selection criterion was not capability but controllability.

Consider James Orengo, the Governor of Siaya. A brilliant lawyer and a stalwart of the democratic struggle since the 1980s, Orengo’s name is synonymous with principle and defiance. His fiery oratory and legal mind have made him a national figure, respected even by his adversaries. He represents the intellectual and ideological backbone of the ODM party. “To pass him over for Oburu is to signal that raw, principled opposition is no longer valued,” posted Ramadham on his X handle.

Speculation was rife yesterday evening that Siaya Governor James Orengo, long regarded as one of ODM’s  ideological pillars, privately expressed discomfort with the succession process. Those close to him say he likened the move to turning a once-mass movement into a family enterprise – a sentiment that captures the quiet frustration simmering among the party’s old guard, who feel the orange has been squeezed until only the bitter peel remains.

Figures like Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, many youth say, the two embody what could have been ODM’s renewal moment – a bridge between its liberation legacy and a restless new generation. Their mix of defiance, charisma, and digital fluency gave the party rare intergenerational appeal, proving ODM could still command attention beyond its Nyanza bastions. Yet when the chance for real transition came, the old guard shut the door. The coronation of Oburu marked not rebirth but retreat – the comfort of familiarity over the courage of change.

The Sifuna dilemma captures ODM’s collapse. Once its sharpest moral voice, he now embodies quiet surrender. Body language experts note that as he read the party resolution yesterday, he looked defeated – no longer a fearless defender but a cautious spokesman, the very image of the party’s slow capitulation. Insiders say he is torn between conviction and convenience, knowing that challenging the succession could write his political obituary. For Sifuna and others near power, proximity has become both lifeline and leash.

Owino, meanwhile, personifies the party’s squandered populist energy. His ability to rally Kenya’s disillusioned youth could have rebranded ODM as a movement of defiance and reform. Instead, that spark is being smothered, deemed too unpredictable for a party obsessed with order and appeasement.

Other figures like Millie Odhiambo, with her fearless advocacy; Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o, one of ODM’s ideological architects now reduced to political spectators; and Hassan Joho, the once-vibrant coastal power broker, all now reflect what ODM could have been – diverse, dynamic, and genuinely national. Their exclusion from serious consideration says it all. ODM is no longer seeking new ground but clinging to its inheritance, afraid of what renewal might unleash, many observers argue.

This is the essence of ODM’s survivalist creed. Insiders say those who endorsed Oburu were not choosing the best leader but rather their own interest – comfort and political survival. For them, Oburu represents continuity and government comfort. A leader like Orengo or Sifuna they say would have reignited opposition politics, forcing the current elites to fight for their positions again. Choosing Oburu for many was a pre-emptive strike against the party’s own purists.

In May, Oburu defended his position bluntly; saying ODM’s role in government was to deliver services to “their people,” not engage in political fights. “We will eat our shares rightfully given to us because we are taxpayers like any other Kenyan,” he declared. His stance was echoed by Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi, John Mbadi, and ODM minority leader in the National Assembly Junet Mohamed; all have repeatedly affirmed loyalty to Ruto’s government and his re-election bid.

From State House, President Ruto must be watching with quiet satisfaction. His gamble to co-opt now Odinga paid off handsomely. What was once a deadly rivalry has become the most effective containment strategy of his presidency, disarming the opposition, fragmenting its base, and buying crucial time from the restless Gen Z revolt that nearly toppled his regime in June 2024.

The ripple effects of the alliance are now plain to see. With Raila’s death, it continues to neutralize what was once Ruto’s fiercest source of criticism, while simultaneously igniting a succession crisis that is going to tear ODM apart. By drawing the party into government’s orbit, Ruto stripped it of ideological independence. The leadership, once the heartbeat of defiance, now trembles at the thought of standing alone.

With Raila out of the way, Ruto no longer needs to destroy ODM; he only needs to manage it. A weakened party led by a compliant Oburu serves him better than a dead one. It will keep the Luo vote contained, sustain the illusion of inclusivity, and block the rise of a fresh, unpredictable challenger; especially from Western Kenya. For Ruto, Oburu’s leadership is the perfect outcome of a long political game plan.

Sifuna’s claim that factionalism is not ODM’s biggest problem is a serious misreading. In truth, factionalism now defines the party. On one side is the survivalist faction led by Oburu and backed by officials in broad-based government – their creed is pragmatism, meaning access and influence at all costs. On the other is the ideological faction, led by Orengo, Sifuna himself, and disillusioned grassroots loyalists who still cling to ODM’s founding vision of a people-powered movement. They see Oburu as the emblem of betrayal.

It is only a matter of time before these cracks rupture into open rebellion – perhaps before the 2027 elections. Political analysts argue that the grassroots are unlikely to rally behind a party increasingly seen as an appendage of Kenya Kwanza. Early signs will appear in the upcoming by-elections this November. As losses mount, the ideological wing will challenge Oburu’s leadership more boldly, while governors and MPs from other regions quietly start to distance themselves, seeking new alliances.

When a big tree falls, the forest changes. Some will saplings thrive; others will die. In choosing Oburu, ODM has picked one that survives only in the ruling party’s shade. This is no rebirth. ODM is currently surviving like a patient hooked to emergency drips to keep alive, but gasping for oxygen to live. The rank and file will soon awaken to the bitter truth as they have been sold the illusion of continuity while the party’s lifeblood is quietly draining away.